Bitcoin Rebound In 2026 May Precede Crash, Analyst Warns

An analyst has cautioned that a potential Bitcoin rebound in early 2026 could be followed by a significant market crash. The observation stems from similarities between current price action and a pattern seen earlier this year when Bitcoin broke below a three-month range after reaching new all-time highs.

EndGame Macro detailed expectations for a support bounce in early 2026, but warned it will not signal the start of a sustained rally like the one seen in April and May. The anticipated slump in Q2 2026 is attributed to factors such as decreased liquidity during tax season and the U.S. Treasury building up the Treasury General Account (TGA).

These conditions would likely decrease risk appetite and push Bitcoin deeper into a bear market. Whether Bitcoin will mirror the March-April 62025 pattern, proceeding to reach a new all-time high, or experience a brief bounce followed by a deeper decline, remains to be seen.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trends serve as a macro signal for global investors. A rising DXY typically signals dollar strength and can be detrimental to Bitcoin’s performance, while a falling DXY correlates with risk-on sentiment. Currently, the DXY maintains a bearish structure, a positive sign for Bitcoin.

However, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased, potentially halting the DXY downtrend and hindering Bitcoin’s advance. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced outflows since the market decline on October 9, indicating weak investor sentiment.

Benjamin Cowen, CEO and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, highlighted the formation of a Bitcoin death cross. Past death crosses have preceded market bottoms. If Bitcoin fails to respond bullishly within a week and surpass the 50-day moving average at $110,000, the death cross could signal a “macro lower high” and agree with the anticipated Q2 2026 slump.

Disclaimer: What is written here is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk investments. Every investment decision is under the individual’s own responsibility.