Bitcoin Signals Potential Dip Based On Gold Correlation

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $100,000, causing investor concern. However, a significant indicator analyzing the long-term correlation between gold and Bitcoin is signaling a potential dip. On November 15th, the BTC/XAU ratio declined by 10.45% weekly, falling 4.8% below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This breach is recognized as a historically reliable signal, appearing at the bottom of major Bitcoin cycles over the past decade.

Historically, the ratio has only fallen below the 200-week EMA four times since 2015, each time preceding a major Bitcoin low. The current breach marks a fifth occurrence, with a potential rebound expected around November 2025. Previous instances saw periods of 203 days below the EMA, with Bitcoin bottoms forming between $200-$300, followed by gains exceeding 6,000% leading to the 2017 peak. Similar patterns emerged in the 2018 downturn ($3,122), the 2020 pandemic crash ($3,858), and the $15,500 low at the end of 2022.

Technically, Bitcoin is also undergoing a structural test, closing below the 50-week EMA for the first time in a long period. This raises the possibility of a pullback to the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $83,724, which previously served as strong support during the 2024 rally. Further weekly closes below the 50-week EMA could lead to selling pressure extending towards the mid-$80,000s.

Despite the bearish signals, bullish sentiment remains. Bitcoin has previously rebounded strongly after brief dips below the 50-week EMA in July 2024, September 7 2024, and April 2025, trapping many sellers and initiating new uptrends. A similar “long wick” formation and a return above the 20-week EMA could swiftly strengthen a short-term bullish scenario.

The market is also discussing a slowdown in corporate inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which contrasts with earlier months. While inflows into BlackRock and Fidelity funds have decreased, limited outflows suggest institutional investors haven’s exited entirely. Analysts suggest that combining the BTC/XAU signal with ETF inflows could lead to a strong rebound in the first quarter of 2026.

Ultimately, the signals from Bitcoin’s technical indicators and its correlation with gold suggest that the current pullback may be a cyclical correction. However, the trading below the 50-week EMA indicates continued volatility in the short term. Investors might consider this period as a potential bottom zone rather than a panic phase, analyzing it through the lens of historical patterns.

Source: coin-turk.com

Disclaimer: What is written here is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk investments. Every investment decision is under the individual’s own responsibility.