Government Reopening Resumes Key Data Releases

The U.S. government’s reopening through a continuing resolution puts inflation data and Treasury issuance back on schedule, impacting Bitcoin liquidity. The agreement, passed by the Senate and headed to the House, restores the flow of data that influences rate expectations and the dollar’s value. Key releases, including October CPI on November 13th, will resume.

This resumption is significant for Bitcoin as it reactivates the macro data pipeline and sets a predictable cadence for Treasury supply. It clarifies the near-term path for real rates, directly influencing Bitcoin risk appetite and spot ETF flows. Prior to this, data releases were paused, creating uncertainty.

The 10-year TIPS-implied real yield currently stands at 1.83%, higher than mid-year levels. A benign CPI print could ease real yields, potentially supporting risk assets and encouraging Bitcoin ETF inflows. Treasury supply will be consistent with prior sizes, minimizing near-term market shocks.

The Treasury General Account’s elevated balance provides a buffer as auctions normalize. A gradual draw from this account would be a liquidity-positive signal, particularly if paired with easing real yields following the CPI release. Improved order book depth has been observed, amplifying macro-led market movements.

Three potential scenarios for Bitcoin liquidity are now possible: a positive response with easing real yields and ETF inflows if CPI aligns with expectations; a negative response with renewed ETF outflows if CPI is higher than expected; or a choppy market if the House passage is uncertain or the CPI data has publication quirks.

This week’s refunding details are: 3-Year Note ($58B, $26.8B new cash), 10-Year Note ($42B), and 30-Year Bond ($25B).

Disclaimer: What is written here is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk investments. Every investment decision is under the individual’s own responsibility.